Letter #223: David Tepper (2024)
Founder of Appaloosa Management and Owner of the Caroline Panthers and Charlotte FC | Squawk Box 2024
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Fourteen years ago, David Tepper went on Squawk Box and shared how he made $7bn in a single year and laid out his worldview and a strategy that worked for the coming decade.
Last week, almost fourteen years to the day, David returned to Squawk Box to discuss China, stimulus, AI, and more. He starts by discussing whether he still has the “intestinal fortitude” to make big bets, the Fed and China easing, Chinese stocks, his VaR, the relationship between the US and China, risk limits, tariffs, Japan, Asia investment opportunities, selling a large chunk of his Nvidia stock and his views on the stock going forward, Ai’s effect on the energy market, how the political landscape may affect the economy, buying everything China, a newfound limit for position sizing, stock buybacks, hedging risk, capital flows, crypto, and more.
David Tepper is the Founder of Appaloosa Management, as well as the owner of the Carolina Panthers and Charlotte FC. David started his career at Equibank as a credit analyst, but quickly left to get an MBA. After graduating, he took a job in the treasury department of Republic Steel before being recruited to Keystone Mutual Funds. After less than a year at Keystone, he was recruited by Goldman Sachs to be a credit analyst in its newly-formed high yield group—he was promoted to head trader in six months. But after being passed over for partner twice in two years, David quit. He then borrowed a desk from Michael Price and started trading his personal account and trying to raise money for a fund. He founded Appaloosa in 1993. (Fun fact: just as he had borrowed a desk from Michael Price when trying to start his fund, he lent a desk to a young Dan Loeb who was starting Third Point.)
I hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did!
[Transcript and any errors are mine.]
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Transcript
Joe Kernen: We recently learned that he sold 84% of his stake in Nvidia in the second quarter and increased bets on China. Joining us now is David Tepper, Founder and President of Appaloosa Management, Owner of the NFL Carolina Panthers. Now I'm going to start the intro totally differently, by bringing up somebody else. You know Druck--Druckenmiller.
David Tepper: Sure.
Joe Kernen: All right. So 30 years, 30% returns, never a down year. I ask him, five years ago, Who does what you did well, now? And he goes, I'm a chicken now. He doesn't take any big bets, it's family money, he doesn't do what he used to do. He said, David Tepper is a guy who has the intestinal fortitude to make huge bets that pay off massively. And we haven't seen in a while, but that's the intro that I would give you. Because that's you, right?
David Tepper: Yeah--
Joe Kernen: Do you still got intestinal fortitude? Are you still making big bets that can pay off, or not?
David Tepper: I think over the last--I mean, we're probably--I think I do have that. On the other hand, probably take smaller positions than I have in the past.
Joe Kernen: So you have. You're getting more conservative in your old age?
David Tepper: Yes and no, okay. Yes, over the last couple years, probably a little bit more conservative. On the other hand, we were up the last couple years in 22, 23, whatever, 20% and 12.5%, when, I guess, the market was down one of those two years. So our absolute returns are better than almost everybody in the market, so we still got that going for us, but--
Joe Kernen: Which is nice.
David Tepper: Doesn't hurt.
Joe Kernen: Yeah, it's from Caddyshack.
David Tepper: So yeah, no, I do--and we can talk about that--
Joe Kernen: And you're a recluse, and we can't get you on camera.
David Tepper: I'm not a recluse.
Joe Kernen: Kind of a recluse. I see you at the golf course, occasionally.
Becky Quick: He just doesn't like us.
David Tepper: No, I love you guys. I love you guys.
Joe Kernen: But you don't like appearing on camera. It's very hard to get you on camera. Sometimes we get phoned--
David Tepper: Well I mean I--
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Here he is! Here he is!
Joe Kernen: That's where I'm going with this. Because you called us, and you said, I have something to say. So you must have something to say. That's what I'm getting to.
David Tepper: Well, I had something to say. I still do have something.
Joe Kernen: Well, that's why we're excited. Because we want to hear what you have to say. What compelled you to want to--I mean, you're not--
David Tepper: To agree to be on?
Joe Kernen: Yes, to agree to this.
David Tepper: Well, I thought that what the Fed did last week would lead to China easing--and I didn't know that they were going to bring out the big guns like they did. And I think there's a whole shift. I listened to you guys a little bit before I left home to come over here, but nobody talked about it this morning, on your show. And you talked about it, but no guests talked about it. I'm like, Whoa.
Joe Kernen: So this is what compelled. This is a major--
David Tepper: It was before what they did last night. I thought they were going to start doing things, and they would have the room because of what the Fed did. The Fed basically lowered 50 basis points, and they used a magic word about 5-10 times--"recalibrate." Recalibrate's a really interesting word, because they said, We have room. Besides this, we're going to do something. I don't know if they're going to do what the market has in it, but they're going to do something besides the 50. Another 25, 25, 25 seems like it's going to--has to be done, because it basically--a long time ago I told you that you have to do what people tell you to do. The Fed puts out a white paper, you listen to what the Fed does, your treasury does? Governments do what they they tell you they're going to do. And the Fed told you they're going to recalibrate interest rates. And what that means is they have a lot of room between where inflation is running and where interest rates are, and they think they're pretty tight, and they can--they have to bring it back towards neutral. So does that mean that it comes down--it's funny how people wave at you in here--that it comes down as much as in the market right now? No. But does it mean that one or two, probably two or three interest rates, 25 basis point cuts, they have to do, or they lose credibility? Yes. So, you know you have the Fed. With that in mind, it kind of gives China the policy breath to lower rates. So we thought, Okay, they're going to come out and lower rates. And they may--maybe they'll do the physical stimulus that everybody's been calling for, and the do the aggressive easing that they've called for in the past. So when that came in, we got a little bit longer. We got a little bit longer. More--
Becky Quick: Got longer Chinese stocks, or--
David Tepper: More Chinese stocks. Okay. And so I have limits, historic limits. I probably said a long time ago, I don't go above 10 or 15%. Well, that's probably not true anymore. Because I set my own VaR. I don't have this VaR nonsense they have in the marketplace. It's value at what I can sleep at night with. That's the thing.
Joe Kernen: It's interesting. And we don't always--when we hear the Fed, okay, they go 50, they may go more, we think, Oh, mortgage rates in this country. Oh, we think business loans in this country. We think interest on the--you immediately thought China, and currency differences around the world. So that was more important to you--
David Tepper: Because the undervaluation is--you know. Listen, you can look at your chart and look at a chart above on your screen, right there, whatever stock you like. In China, they are, even with the recent moves, they're like on a flat line low compared to where they have been in the past. And you're sitting there with single multiple P/Es with double digit growth rates for the big stocks that trade over here. That's versus your 20+ on the S&P. Okay. And then you have--so the question was, Was China going to do the things that you want them to do? Are they going to do the easing measures that you want them to do? So yeah, they came the other day, and what's his name--[Pan Gongsheng]--and I apologize, because I can't even speak English well--he came out and he was, like, jovial. It's like, whoa--jovial. Saying we're going to cut and we're going to--and we'll give you more. And he said, We'll do more, and more, if needed. Now, the Chinese to say We'll do more and more if needed--they don't say that, because it's not been healthy to say those sort of things in China. But they said that the other night, and I'd listen very carefully what government officials say. So I took it that they did a lot, they exceeded expectations, and they promised to do more and more and more. And that's very strange language, especially for--any central banker, but especially over there. So that was the first thing that happened. And last night, we heard that they were going to have some kind of meeting, but they kind of blew away expectations on the physical stimulus that they were going to do. Now, physical stimulus, if you look at your charts, if you like charts, because you used to be a broker, and that was a good way to do things fast--what can happen around the world when they do that? That's what you have to ask yourself now. So now you have the Fed--so just a backdrop again. The Fed's easing. You know you have a few more easings coming. The Japanese, they don't know what they want to do right now, but it doesn't matter what people think, they're going to be forced into things--and I can talk about that in a second. The Europeans are lowering rates. And now the Chinese are lowering rates. And they're going to be--they're aggressive in how they're going to do it, and they're also--believe this or not, swap facilities to buy stocks. Encouraging buyback of stocks. Encouraging buybacks of stocks. This is China, all right? This is stock buybacks--not only encouraging it, lending you money to do it. And they're giving money like telf money where you can put money out and you have no losses. If you want to do it. You have--you know how that thing works? You have--loan me the money you put up and you can--don't lose money. That's a great deal for me. I want to be over there, borrow for some of this stuff. So--
Becky Quick: What about the relationship between the United States and China? How the Chinese government may or may not feel about American investors, but maybe more importantly, how the American government feels about US investors investing in China too. What's the risk? How do you hedge that risk?
David Tepper: That would be a risk, and that's why you have limits on how much you would invest. However--
Becky Quick: But you just said you don't have those limits.
David Tepper: The other thing I thought you were going to ask is about tariffs and stuff like that--I do not care. This is internal stimulus--in the physical stimulus they did last night, they're going to encourage consumption, directly saying it. So they're really doing all the things that people have asked them to do over these years. So what will happen on world markets? So now you have--you want to talk with the United States--most of your viewers are here in the United States.
Joe Kernen: Or Europe or Japan.
David Tepper: Or Europe or Japan.
Joe Kernen: You started on Japan.
David Tepper: Okay, so we can go around the world. Obviously this is incredibly good for very undervalued Chinese equities. Especially when the government's encouraging the buybacks. Buybacks and for you to take risk to buy stock. Take a loan out, buy stock, you can't lose money on your loan. Great deal for me. I would--if you want to be Chinese--is Sorkin a Chinese name? No, okay, I'm so sorry. Anyway, sorry. So you have--so United States. So you have this world, and so I'm trying to figure the United States. So it's not really your first plug to go to invest right now, because you would say China first, Asia second--Asia at large, second, then Japan, Korea, those markets--also actually, Asia and Europe--and Europe--before Japan. And I will tell you why. The problem with--you have to be careful a little bit about Japan, although I think you still--you want to be in the equity markets. If you look what happens if China runs, and they get the economy going, and you get the animal spirits going, what happens? Chinese throw a lot of money in their economy, who's one of the biggest beneficiaries in their own economy? Is Japan. And Japan, if they start running faster, they'd--I don't care what this election is--and they're worried about this candidate and that candidate, some candidates might want to go to Abenomics--and I don't care. They don't even understand it yet. This just happened last night. The market doesn't understand it yet. What's going to happen? Japan is going to run too fast if they really stimulate there. And when Japan runs too fast, they're going to have to raise rates. And when they raise rates, the Yen is going to appreciate. If the Yen appreciates, then you have to be careful about the stock market--depending how it goes. Now, the stock market in Yen terms, you should still make money, but how much does it move or not because of how it historically does? So you go around the world--the US... Listen. The problem with the US--and then I could go European. The European index at 14x multiple versus a 22x--historically, incredibly wide.
Joe Kernen: 22 here.
David Tepper: 21, 22, whatever you want to say for next year.
Joe Kernen: So Europe looks interesting.
David Tepper: Yeah, Europe looks interesting.
Joe Kernen: We're like last.
David Tepper: Well, Japan has the same sort of multiple right now. And you can say we have much better stocks and much bigger tech stocks and that. So the question here, where you don't have necessarily a cheap market--it's not a cheap market. It probably is--and I didn't listen to him--I listened a little bit, but what Cooperman said yesterday--but if you looked at historically, it's a little overvalued. I would say that. However, I get concerned about one thing. Because I, fortunately or unfortunately, I was around in the 90s. I was around in the 80s too, but it was around the 90s. And in that market, where the Fed cut rates into Y2K in a good economy, a relatively--not a bad economy, but a relatively okay economy. You had those rich in--before long term credit--rich in 97, relatively rich--richer after long term credit, and bubble mania in 99, early 2000. So I don't love--I'm a value guy--I don't love the US markets on a value standpoint, but I sure as heck won't be short. Because I would be nervous as heck about the setup, with easy money everywhere, a relatively good economy, and China just getting massive stimulus coming in. So it would make me nervous not to be somewhat long the US. So that's how the setup is. So you have to be--you can't be short the US. You can't be short anything in Asia. Anything in Asia.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Nothing.
David Tepper: Nothing!
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Okay, but let me ask--you said you have to be "somewhat long" the US.
David Tepper: Selectively.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: So that's what I was gonna ask. How would you be--where would you be selective? What looks good to you, what looks bad to you?
David Tepper: Some things I don't want to talk about, because I might be purchasing them right now, so it will make it harder for me to buy, but--
Joe Kernen: He only wants to talk about things he might sell.
David Tepper: Yeah, that's right, exactly. Thank you.
Joe Kernen: You're welcome.
David Tepper: No, but look, today, if I wanted to do chicken-long Chinas, I'd buy--and we were buying them, but--because we're--just part of our China stuff, I'd buy Wynn and LVS to get a sort of Chinese play with people who can't go there. That's kind of an interesting assumption--sort of stuff. Listen, we're kind of exploring different parts of the energy side of the of the tech market--not to name anything in particular. We own a lot of--our book has, historically, a lot of tech names. Meta and Google and we own--still own some Nvidia, and own different things. We own DRAM stocks--
Becky Quick: You own--you sold some Nvidia?
David Tepper: Well, we sold a lot of our Nvidia. But listen, the stock, we thought was too high at the time, and would come down. Unfortunately, we didn't buy it when it came back down. So it's okay. It's really--those stocks, like Nvidia, is a question: Do you have enough power for the growth? Do you have the next generation models that can take their chip? So it looks great in 24, it looks great in 25. I have no idea in 26 and 27. I am--no idea. I don't believe my analysts, I don't believe any analyst, I don't trust myself. You know what I'm saying? I just don't know how you know. There's too much. And you have these multiples out there and how it can go, and the variation of where that earnings can be on the out years is too much. So it's not my preferred vehicle versus other things that I have more confidence in how we can do, in my shop, analysis on the earnings.
Joe Kernen: But you thought it was important to mention that you'll be playing the energy component of trying to supply all this new tech.
David Tepper: We're trying to understand it better.
Joe Kernen: Try and understand it better--
David Tepper: Here's the thing. I'll tell you--
Joe Kernen: Would it be--would you avoid green? Would you embrace green? Would you avoid fossil fuels? Would you embrace fossil fuels? Natural gas? Which way would you do it?
David Tepper: So I never think I'm that smart, so I just like to use common sense.
Joe Kernen: I made you out to be really smart.
David Tepper: Okay, you can try, but I'm not gonna accept it. But I do have a heck a lot of common sense. And this is what I know--I know I talked to some governors around the country, both sides of the aisle, friendly with everybody, as you know--so they're not going to let their nuclear power come offline. It's not going to happen. It's a joke. Some of these projections on these things are crazy. It has to be--if you're going to meet these power needs of what they need for AI, you're going to have to use natural gas. You're going to have to use natural gas. It's just--
Joe Kernen: And that comes from drilling.
David Tepper: Yeah. I mean, we have a lot of it. So you have to use--you're going to have to use it. You cannot take the--if you take a current nuclear plant, and you think you're going to get these things, it will never get by these individual PUCs. It won't. It can't. It's going to hurt the consumer too much. You can't hurt the consumer that much. It's nuts. So I hear these guys talk about, Well, if we did this--if I was--Okay, if I was 7'2", I would have been in the NBA one day. I'm not 7'2". If you want to say something that can't possibly happen.
Joe Kernen: You still wouldn't be in NBA...
David Tepper: I was still--I don't have the skills. It's true story.
Joe Kernen: You could be 8'2" and you still wouldn't--
David Tepper: But, so that's an interest--when I say--so I'm trying to understand what really makes sense, what doesn't make sense. We're trying to figure that out right now. But it's fascinating to me. It's fascinating when you look at these tech stocks, it's fascinating in a video, or you look at some of these things, can you do for different reasons? There's different things as you go out years, different things that have to happen to make the growth projections happen. I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just not smart enough to know if they will. I know the probabilities that they will or not, but I can't. No. It's what it is. Okay, so I recognize those things. And people are making assumptions--are going to happen 100%. Well, the United States is a great country, we innovate like heck, and things do happen this way. And usually--you have flies in here.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: We do have flies.
Joe Kernen: There's one particular one. And if I can get him, I'm telling you, I'm not even going to kill him right away.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Dare I ask you how the election plays into all of this?
David Tepper: So, with the election--I am a big proponent of split government. And right now, as you're more than aware of, it looks like the Senate is Republican and the House is Democratic--and I'm loving life. And I don't care. I'm talking purely from this show. I don't care.
Joe Kernen: What would you do if it was a sweep?
David Tepper: If it's a sweep on either side?
Joe Kernen: Democrat sweep.
David Tepper: I'll just--and I don't want to talk about it that much, politics--but I'll just say, in general, you have a populist on one side and a progressive populist on the other. And if I listen to what happy day I hear, I hear more giveaways and more that. So do I want all Democrats? No. Do I want all Republicans? No. I don't want more--again, from a pure economics, there's other considerations, which, this is not the show to talk about, but from this market perspective, an economic perspective, what's good for the economy? I want a split government, and I don't want all Democrats, and I don't want all Republicans. I'm thinking about the markets.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: And you think at the moment, it's not impacting the markets either way, because you think the expectation is that it's gonna be split?
David Tepper: Well, I mean, the expectation's there. People bet on it. The betting markets are that way--that is split. And as long as it's split, and this may be a problem, because the market thinks it's going to be split right now, so if it gets surprised, that could be a problem for the markets. But as long as it's a split, the market is going to be fine. They will not care, because they're not going to let them do the things they talk about.
Joe Kernen: So David, are you afraid to play AI directly? You're doing the sort of downstream ways of doing it. Is it just too hard to figure out?
David Tepper: No.
Joe Kernen: There's Nvidia, but--
David Tepper: No. Listen--
Joe Kernen: What, besides Nvidia and energy could--
David Tepper: Well, we have the regular stocks, like a Meta has been a big beneficiary of AI.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Llama.
David Tepper: All these--just in how they do models, how they monetize their business. Another company is like Amazon--
Joe Kernen: Is that a big trend for you or is something else?
David Tepper: It's a question, How much is in the stocks and what the next generation, How much more? Because they've gotten pretty good returns, I think--more than people appreciate in one of these numbers. All these stocks could have near term surprises, so the question is, What is it as it goes further out?
Andrew Ross Sorkin: When you say surprises, surprises on the upside or downside?
David Tepper: Well, surprises on the upside if they can change the models, and some of the base earnings are good enough to give support for those stocks, versus, we talked about--and I kind of like Nvidia, the price, okay, so don't get me wrong--I could just love it--but you have to believe more in that, versus--.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Are you not a believer that long term, for AI to actually work, and to be a meaningful contributor to the economy--
David Tepper: Yes.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: No--that Nvidia's margins ultimately have to come down. Meaning, as long as they have, what, it's like 70% margin, 80% margins on some of these chips, it's amazing, and God bless him for it. But at some point, to make this whole thing economical, I imagine margins are gonna have to come down.
Becky Quick: It won't come down until--not until their stock--
David Tepper: It depends how much they make. But look, it's another concern. Potentially.
Joe Kernen: Do you have any Lily? Novo? You have any healthcare? You got any biotech?
David Tepper: Are you asking me if I take Ozempic?
Joe Kernen: Nope, do you watch Lily? Lily has been a growth stock--
David Tepper: No, I don't have--
Joe Kernen: So no healthcare.
Becky Quick: Can I go back to China again? Just still trying to get my head around--
David Tepper: Which I think is the biggest thing that people really have to go and understand it, because it has implications all over the--in bonds, currencies, and stocks. We didn't talk about the currencies and bond side--
Becky Quick: But just with the stocks themselves--I'm just thinking of your positions. Alibaba was a huge position. You really loaded up in the first quarter. You cut back, I think in the second quarter--what are you doing now? Did the China moves over the last few days--just because you were saying in the past you wouldn't go more than 10 or 12%--the most recent things that we've seen are that you have about 12% of Alibaba. Does that mean you put those aside and you would own even more than that?
David Tepper: As I said, the value at risk model is what I sleep at night. I'm having--I had a fine--I went over that limit on the Fed announcement, in the last week. I went more when they said a day or two ago on their Fed. And last night, I did more.
Becky Quick: Just Alibaba?
David Tepper: Everything.
Becky Quick: Or are you talking JD, Baidu--
David Tepper: Everything.
Becky Quick: PDD, the two Chinese ETFs--
David Tepper: Everything. ETF. I would do futures. Everything. Everything. Listen, a long time ago, in 2010 I think, I said, Everything.
Becky Quick: I remember. I remember when you said everything, and you were right.
David Tepper: Okay, and you know what was good? Everything. So, if they--this is incredible stuff for that place. So it's everything. Now I would love to see a pullback. Because I will then--my newfound limit, which might have been twice my oldfound limit--
Becky Quick: 25%?
David Tepper: You said 10-12 is--
Becky Quick: So 20-24%, so--
David Tepper: I'm not gonna say what it is.
Becky Quick: Is the limit 25?
David Tepper: I will have another newfound limit--in a pullback--if I see these absolutely be implemented. Because, again, you can look at these names, and you're talking about single digit P/E multiples with double digit growth.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: But you think there--
David Tepper: Wait a second. This is the other thing. You have some of these stocks with 50% cash. Some of these things you just put up on the board--50% cash. 20% cash. 30% cash. And that cash, depending how the Chinese currency goes--maybe, if the Chinese currency is really strong, they'll want them to buy back.
Becky Quick: Okay, so, David, let me ask you--
David Tepper: Did you see this thing? Buy back stock--when companies buy back their stock--
Becky Quick: But you're a hedge fund. How do you hedge your risk? What's the counter bet that you put on that, just in case?
David Tepper: You know what? I'm sitting here in a suit. My counter bet is that I don't care. I don't--
Andrew Ross Sorkin: There is no hedge.
Becky Quick: There's no hedge?
Joe Kernen: A hedge fund is an oxymoron for Appaloosa.
David Tepper: In this case, there--
Becky Quick: In this case, there is no hedge.
David Tepper: Because--look. I'm looking at a market where we're 20x+ versus a market that's single digit with double digit growth rates--and big cash pieces, which I'm not even adding into the--which would make it more. So what is the multiples that you can make versus what you can lose? And where's the risk in the near term? So what's the risk? For me, the risk is--it could be that, but that's going to be because the Chinese--it's going to get stronger.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: But let me ask you--
David Tepper: And wait, this is the last thing I want to just mention to you. If you look, nobody's invested. Zero investment. And so that's going to mean--and what you said is that people have to go--they're going to put cash in there. It's going to make the currency strengthen. And as a currency strengthens, that means they have more room in their minds to ease, because--and it may be that instead of worrying about it going down, they have to worry about it going up.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: You've made big calls before, but then there have been situations where you've reversed--and you reverse quickly--in a way that, frankly, the viewers may not always appreciate.
David Tepper: If these things don't come to pass.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: So that was my question. What is the thing that you would be watching for that would reverse this view?
David Tepper: If these things don't come to pass. If they're for some reason--I mean, they were just--I mean--they would have to--this was the 24--this is Xi. This wasn't Andrew Sorkin equivalent. This is Xi, in his Politburo. So he would have to basically go out and put a strong statement and then reverse himself. Not--I don't know this leader as well as I do know some other leaders with some tendencies that don't like to basically reverse what they say so publicly and so loudly. These leaders don't usually like to say it. They usually like to stand by what they do. And I do--
Andrew Ross Sorkin: So you think he's locked in, at least for some period of time.
David Tepper: I think he is. That could be wrong. If it's wrong, then I might change it up.
Becky Quick: I haven't heard you have conviction like this since the Tepper taper. I mean, that was the last time--
David Tepper: Well, there have been a couple of times I had--I didn't talk to during the Fed white paper at the bottom of--in 2010, when they--it was kind of--Listen. It's the same thing. You just read what these guys are saying. Powell told you something. Okay, he didn't promise you--he told you some kind of recalibration. He has to follow through somewhat. These guys basically--more and more--never before. I love when people say never before. They do stuff. I don't--I'm not that smart. I keep telling people--I told you last time: I'm not that smart. I just read what they say. And do they have conviction? And these guys, they usually do what they say, especially when they have this level of conviction. It usually happens this way.
Joe Kernen: You told me to keep riding the horse, but then you never did tell me to get off the horse. I don't know if you ever did get off the horse. Maybe you didn't.
David Tepper: Which horse are we talking about?
Joe Kernen: It was a couple years ago. I can look back on the actual text I have. They're all preserved for when you say things. Do you remember when you said, Keep riding the horse? And I would say, Are you going to tell me when I should dismount? And here you are, and you never did.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Because he never fully dismounted.
Joe Kernen: No, I don't think he did.
David Tepper: No, no. So with the other things, listen--I mean, the big question for people, there's different market, big market bets out there that people have to consider. One is the big carry bet on Japan, which can get blown out of the water. I'm not saying it's going to, because you have a lot of other near term factors in there, and it can move the other way--but if you look at if they do this stuff, and you look historically what's happened when China's been running, Japan has a heck of a lot of currency appreciation. Not that people pay any attention to it anymore, purchasing parity type models, but that's 80, 90, the things at--I don't know where it is right now--144. That's an interesting sort of situation. Now you have the interest rate differential, so you cost you money to have that trade, to be to be long the Yen. And that's been the big trade out there. The short China has been a big trade out there. The short and not even be long China's a big trade out there. So the disallocation of this stuff, this stuff that happened last night, and happened the last few days, is potentially large in the marketplace. And eventually, depending what happens--now, there's always tension in the world, in the Mideast, or maybe--
Joe Kernen: We have data at 8:30--
Becky Quick: Guys, 30 seconds.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Can I just ask David one real quick question? Which is, you said that, back in 21 that crypto, and I believe Bitcoin was gold to you.
David Tepper: Yeah.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: Do you still own it? Have you bought more? Would you buy more? We just had Gensler on.
David Tepper: When I said it was gold to me, I didn't mean it was gold to me--I mean, like, great. It's like a gold type equivalent to me.
Andrew Ross Sorkin: So do you own any?
David Tepper: I have a little bit. The expert--my son is the guy that does crypto. Sometimes I will play with it, but I really don't have any investments in it.
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Wrap-up
If you’ve got any thoughts, questions, or feedback, please drop me a line - I would love to chat! You can find me on twitter at @kevg1412 or my email at kevin@12mv2.com.
If you're a fan of business or technology in general, please check out some of my other projects!
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Cloud Valley — Easy to read, in-depth biographies that explore the defining moments, investments, and life decisions of investing, business, and tech legends like Dan Loeb, Bob Iger, Steve Jurvetson, and Cyan Banister.
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Compilations — “A national treasure — for every country.”
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Bookshelves — Your favorite investors’/operators’ favorite books.
A truly inspiring post—perfect for starting the New Year on the right note.